How much cumulative returns do you need to recover from a 50% market drawdown? Most of you know it is 100%, not 50%. What percentage of an annualized compound rate of return or Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) do you need to get a 100% total return to recover from the loss in three, five, and ten years? How about a more typical 20% or 30% loss? Also, what's the average annualized equity market return after 10%, 15%, 20% market decline in one, three, and five years? You will find all these numbers here.
Figure 1. Returns Needed To Recover From A Market Drawdown
Figure 2. US Equity Returns Following Sharp Downturns
Periods in which cumulative return from peak is –10%, –15%, or –20% or lower and a recovery of 10%, 15%, or 20%, respectively, from trough has not yet occurred are considered downturns. Returns are calculated for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year look ahead periods beginning the day after each downturn. Whether a period is considered a downturn is analyzed on a daily basis, and therefore the 1-, 3-, and 5-year look ahead periods are overlapping. The bar chart shows the average returns for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year periods following 10%, 15% and 20% downturns. For the 10% threshold, there are 3,442 observations for 1-year look ahead, 3,396 observations for 3-year look ahead, and 3,345 observations for 5-year look ahead. For the 15% threshold, there are 3,175 observations for 1-year look ahead, 3,167 observations for 3-year look ahead, and 3,166 observations for 5-year look ahead. For the 20% threshold, there are 2,561 observations for 1-year look ahead, 2,560 observations for 3-year look ahead, and 2,560 observations for 5-year look ahead. Peaks and troughs are patterns that are developed by the price action experienced by all securities. Peak is the highest point prior to a drawdown, and trough is the lowest point after the peak. Data provided by Fama/French. add back in available at http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/ data_library.html. Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors of the general partner of, and provide consulting services to, Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Investing risks include loss of principal and fluctuating value. There is no guarantee an investment strategy will be successful. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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